patrickmurfin

Things are moving at lightning speed now in Presidential politics.  Today, on short notice, John Edwards went to New Oreleans to announce his withdrawal from the Democratic race only days after vowing to stay in to the Convention.  Two days ago his campaign announced a major 10 state media buy ahead of the Tsuenami Tuesday primaries on February 5.

What happened?  We’ll leave it to the memoirs of inside dopesters and the author of the next Making of a President tome to lay out the exact sequence of events.  But it probably went something like this.  First, despite a glimmer of hope that he might beat out Hilary Clinton for second place in his native South Carolina, he finished third trailing badly.  Money, always a challenge, began to dry up.  The media became obsessed with the Clinton/Obama soap opera dividing the leading candidates into icons of race and gender.  Then, a flurry of major endorsements for Obama, including Edwards old running mate John Kerry and culminating with the Kennedy Coronation. 

Finally, it became apparent that Hillary would use her muscle to harvest the delegates of Michigan and Florida which had been banned by the Democractic National Committee for moving their primaries up.  Edwards and Obama had observed party rules and not campaigned in either state.  Clinton allowed her name to remain on the Michigan ballot and ran stealth campaigns in both states without breaking the letter of the rule against personally campaigning in them.  After a predictable blow-out win, she swept into Florida and announced her intention to appeal to the DNC to seat the delegates, in direct contradiction of the agreement all candidates signed.  Although Clinton would have done well in Florida anyway—the older skewing voter base and heavy edge in women registered—the numbers would have been much closer if her rivals had competed.  And in Michigan, with its large Black population, big labor vote, and in an economic crisis Obama, or conceivably Edwards himself with his message of economic populism, might have won outright.  I am sure this last Clinonesque betrayal offended Edwards sense of simple justice.

The unknowable, at least for now, variable is the precarious state of Elizabeth Edwards’ health.  The doughty Mrs. Edwards has been campaigning under what amounts to a death sentence for months after her breast cancer returned with a bleak prognosis.  Together the couple vowed to fight on and the progressive populism of the campaign seemed fueled by their mutual sense of a mission to literally transform America.  Did her prognosis suddenly worsen?  We don’t know, but in informal interviews with the press after John’s withdrawal announcement, she replied to queries about who her husband might now support with the off hand remark that for a while, “he will be supporting me.”

Of course the question of who will get Edwards’s support is a matter of considerable interest.  So far he is holding his cards close to the vest.  Both other candidates—and Bill Clinton—have spoken with him over the past two days.  Obama acknowledges that he directly asked Edwards.  The Clinton are more publicly coy, but you can be sure that they are engaged in a full court press wielding both the carrot and the stick.  Edwards told reporters that he would confer with both camps before making an announcement.

Many an innocent goat has gone to its death today as pundits sift their entrails for signs.  Some note that many Edwards staffers and high level volunteers feel closer to Obama as an agent of change.  Obama is less tied to the web of Washington lobbyists and interest groups that Edwards has come to despise.  His refusal to take PAC money and interest in lobby reform speaks to them.  Similarly, they mistrust Clinton on trade, particularly the family dedication to “Free Trade” pacts like NAFTA and CAFTA.  No amount of backtracking on the campaign trail has convinced them that Hillary has changed her spots on this issue.

On the other hand those that prefer to read detailed demographic reports on voters in the early primaries have concluded that for all of his populist rhetoric, Edwards has scored best among self-described conservative Democrats.  He has also, at least in the South, been the refuge for white men.  His voters have split on second choices with an edge going to Hilary—perhaps due to her strong union ties and lingering affection for her husband.  Some feel that Edwards might be inclined to follow the lead of his rank and file supporters rather than his professional staff and idealist volunteers.

There is also the question of promises.  Hillary remains the favorite to win the nomination with her superb machine, deep pockets, Bill Clinton nostalgia—although Bill may be in the process of wearing that thin—an edge in women voters, and the possibility that, in the end, a lot of white voters will not be able to bring themselves to vote for a Black man.  It that’s the case, then Hillary is in a much better position to make a wink-and-nod offer of a high position in her administration than is Obama.

What ever the outcome, the American people and the Democratic Party owe a deep debt of gratitude to John Edwards for courageously brining the nation’s class divide front and center once again.  Neither Obama or Clinton will be able to ignore those issue now.  To some degree or another both have to integrate Edward’s progressive vision into their own.

I just think Obama will mean it.

Voters are putting their money down on the wrestling match in South Carolina as I write this.  The fact the event was billed as a three way cage match, but Bill Clinton somehow got into the ring and blind-sided Barack Obama with a folding chair.  Obama seemed stunned but sprang off the ropes with remarkable agility.  Meanwhile John Edwards circles the main contestants, occasionally kneeling behind one or another of thrm inviting the other to push him or her backwards over him.  He hopes to escape enough attention to prevent himself from being thrown out of the cage and onto the press table and maybe be the last one standing.

Hey, forgive the extended metaphor, but I was on a roll.

Florida is up next, another state, like Michigan which has been stripped of its convention delegates.  And like Michigan, Hilary Clinton stands to walk away with a hollow victory—unless she goes on to emerge as the presumptive nominee, in which case she will use her super powers (the Scowl of Death) to convince the Democratic National Committee to kiss the queens ass and reverse itself.  Obama and Edwards have run only shadow campaigns in announced loyalty to the DNC decision.  And in a state heavy with: 1) older voters, 2) an unusually large number of women voters (those old men tend to die off faster than the women,) and 3) a significant Latino vote which  showed in Nevada a reluctance to  support a Black candidate, Clinton is leading by big numbers.

Then it’s on to Tsunami Tuesday, a coast-to-coast Iron Man/Woman Marathon.  Obama and Clinton both have strong states.  It a toss-up in others.  Edward can only place a consistent, distant third and hope to limp into a deadlocked Convention.  Super delegate rich California, where a few weeks ago Obama seemed to be making inroads into a wide Clinton lead, now seems to be swinging back toward her, largely on the strength of the Latino vote.  But Obama seems likely to sweep the Bay Area, Silicon Valley, and the northern part of the state. 

Clinton and Obama should each sew up their home states, New York and Illinois.  Obama may have an edge in Massachusetts and Minnesota.  Clinton will take Arkansas but other Deep South states with big blocks of Black voters and in which most whites have abandoned the Democrats for the GOP are in play.  A big Obama win in South Carolina could galvanize Blacks behind him leaving Clinton to try to salvage a victory by using her husband to simultaneously chip away a portion of the older black vote while being the anti-Obama (wink, nod) for whites.  A similar contest emerges in the border states of Missouri and Tennessee except with their bigger proportion of white voters, the emphasis will be on the wink and the nod.  Chalk up Arizona for Clinton (see analysis of Florida.)   

Since Party rules decree that delegates be allotted proportionately, it’s hard to predict a final delegate count coming out of February 5.  My guess is Clinton will lead but not by enough to drive a steak through the heart of the Obama candidacy.

If a clear winner emerges from the Republicans that day (my guess:  John McCain despite being loathed by huge swaths of the party, but the only one who stands a snow-balls-chance-in-hell of being elected in Novermber,) Democratic voters in subsequent contests will be increasingly focusing of “electability.”  And that’s not good for Clinton.  Edwards may not be able to ride it out to the Convention and be forced to abandon his campaign.  Both sides are courting him for the nod if he bails.  He is clearly closer to Obama on policy and on “change,” but some observers think he may have been flirting with Clinton lately.

In other developments, Dennis Kucinich, has finally dropped out.  He, like Edwards had hoped to make it to the convention, not in hopes of winning but to keep plugging away with his more radical anti-war position and left progressive domestic agenda.  But Dennis has been locked out of the televised debates by the media and ignored by the press so that he could effectively no longer get that message out.  Even more critically, he found himself suddenly in a hot primary contest to save his Congressional seat and had to get back to Ohio to shore up support.

Where will all of those activists who made Kucinich a favorite of progressive web site polls go?  Many of them swore they would never support any other Democrats.  Well, there is no Left third party or independent candidacy to turn to (The Greens ignore the class issues dear to these folks and hardly seem aware of the war at all.)  Some will sulk, pout, and throw temper tantrums across the web.  A good many will opt for Edwards, in whose rousing brand of class-conscious populism they will find comfortable, if temporary refuge.  But if it comes down to a two-way race, most will throw in with Obama wailing and complaining bitterly every step of the way.

In the immortal words of Margo Channing “Fasten your seatbelts.  We’re in for a bumpy ride.”  Especially for pundits and pollsters, both of whom were caught with their pants around their ankles in their worst debacle since “Dewey Beats Truman.”  Oh the gnashing of teeth and beating of breasts!

What happened in New Hampshire?  Well, nothing all that surprising except to the stampeding media herd in the aftermath of Barack Obama’s stunning win in Iowa and the pollsters who could not capture the torrent of changing public opinion in the wake of the Iowa dam burst.

In fact, Obama did very well in New Hampshire.  Less than a week ago a finish second less than 3% behind Hillary Clinton, who still held a substantial lead in state polls, would have been considered a major boost to his campaign.  Now it is being trumpeted my some as a catastrophic loss—or even in the minds of fervent Clintonistas in the media—a knock-out blow. 

No one should have counted Clinton out in the first place.  She has enormous resources, a well oiled operation—despite the temporary panic of some, and the powerful afterglow many Democrats feel for Bill Clinton.  Neither should any lamentations be made over Obama.  His resources and organization match hers in nearly every respect and he has a reservoir of highly motivated and enthusiastic volunteers that Clinton can counter only with difficulty.

Once again Democrats as a party have much to be happy for.  They broadly out drew Republicans in an unprecedented turn-out in both hotly contested races.  Although once solidly Republican, the state has turned bright blue in recent years and that trend was only accelerated by participation in Democratic Primary.  The aforementioned pundits assumed that the large numbers of independents and first time voters in New Hampshire would break almost exclusively toward Obama, as they had in Iowa.  And for a day or two they were telling pollsters exactly that.

But the media coronation of Obama on Saturday and Sunday may have convinced some of those independents that Obama was safely in the driver’s seat and that they could vote Republican, largely to stop Mitt Romney, former governor of neighboring Massechusets who many flinty-eyed Yankees could spot for a phony.  Besides half of Southern New Hampshire is populated by Bay State exiles who knew Romney all too well.  So some independents shifted to the GOP to stop Romney and to boost a sentimental local favorite, “strait talking” John McCain.

However, two other factors were probably even more important to boosting Clinton to a narrow victory.

First, women, who had gone over to Obama in Iowa, rallied to Clinton in New Hampshire, especially older women.  Even Hillary herself seems to credit her brief emotional out burst on Saturday in which she came nearly to tears explaining how “this is deeply personal.”  While weeping has notoriously been the kiss of death for male candidates—Ed Muskie right there in the Granite State in 1972 being the classic example—some say it humanized a sometimes frosty Clinton.  More likely it simply tugged on the loyalty of a generation of women who had long yearned for a woman president but had also been tempted by equally attractive ground breaking candidacy of Obama.  At the last minute many “came home” to their feminist dream.

Second was the powerful advantage Clinton enjoyed in the traditionally  Democratic cities of Manchester, Nashua, and Concord.  Not only was Clinton able to call in favors from the local Democratic establishment, but her legendary “get out the vote” machine performed flawlessly. 

Obama, on the other hand rolled up big winning margins in the rural north, in smaller towns, the exurban communities of the Boston metroplex, and the many college towns.  He also won the Portsmouth on the coast.  These are areas where the Clinton GOTV machine could not easily work due to distance and a diffused population.  Some annalists believe that those results mirrored the Obama boomlet over the weekend across the state and argue that without an amazing ground operation in urban areas Clinton would have lost the state.

Clinton and her surrogates will argue that her strong showing in the cities demonstrates her edge with “real Democrats” and that Obama’s appeal to independents and disgruntled Republican dilutes the will of core Democrats.  In fact she’s counting on that in upcoming races where it is much more difficult for independents to vote in closed and semi-closed primaries and where large urban areas fit her GOTV model.  

Almost unspoken, but whispered here and there, is speculation that when faced with the reality that their vote could actually propel a Black man to the Presidency and not just be a warm fuzzy gesture, that some White voters could not bring themselves to do it.  Political hipsters point out how another attractive, articulate Black with strong appeal beyond his race—former Rep. Harold Ford—went into a race for the Senate from Tennessee in 2006 with a big lead in the polls only to go down to a defeat chalked up to those who could not vote Black.  But New Hampshire is not Tennessee and whatever challenge this might afford Obama in Southern and Border  states, it is unlikely to have had much traction there.

What’s next?  Well, we are going to have a barn burner of a campaign that is likely to extend beyond even the Feburary 5th Tsunami Tuesday primaries.

Clinton will look for a further boost from the Michigan Primary next Tuesday where she is the only major democrat on the ballot.  Obama and John Edwards both withdrew their names from the ballot there in deference to Party rules guaranteeing Iowa and New Hampshire the earliest dates in the campaign calendar.   Both of those states moved back their contests to counter moves by Michigan and Florida to horn in their premier status and the Democratic National Committee has refused to recognize the delegates of both states and has even cancelled Michigan’s hotel reservation.  Even Clinton has not campaigned in the state and has here-to-fore allowed only a low key operation to represent her. 

But many Michigan Democrats, particularly the big Black vote in Detroit and other fading rust belt industrial cities, and young voters clustered in major college towns are bitterly disappointed that they can’t vote for Obama.  Edwards has a devoted following among Steel Workers and other unionists.  Rep. John Conyers and others are now organizing a last minute push, including a big radio campaign, to get voters to select a slate of uncommitted delegates who would be free to back Obama or Edwards.  And powerful Senator Carl Levin, while defending Michigan’s choice for an early primary as a blow to making the Democratic nominating process more reflective of the party’s broad base, believes that in the end the national party will not snub to such important states as Michigan and Florida and will seat their delegations.  He, too, publicly calls on Obama and Edwards supporters to vote non-committed.  The gambit may be too late to deny Clinton a hollow victory.

A real contest is shaping up in the January 19th Nevada Caucuses.  This event has never amounted to a hill of beans before and the turn out for the caucuses has historically been limited to a handful of hard core party members.  But everyone has been intensely active in the state for some time and despite a prohibitive lead in early polls for Clinton, both Obama and Edwards have had high hopes for the state.  Everyone was contending for the support of the state’s powerful hospitality industry unions who could bring their massive muscle to bear for any candidate.  Early on Edwards won the hearts of leaders of the new union UNITE HERE, but Nevada Culinary Workers, one of UNITE’s most powerful components, revolted.  They wavered between Clinton as the likely anointed candidate—why offend the next queen—and the rank and file preferences for Obama and Edwards.  After another major union, SEIU, representing health care and public service workers broke for Obama earlier in the week the Culinary Workers and their UNITE parent threw their support to the Senator. 

As a result Nevada stands to fall to Obama and give him a comeback victory right ahead of another state where he promises to do well, South Carolina, which holds a Democratic Primary on January 26th.  This is another state that early looked strong for Clinton, who enjoyed substantial support not only from women, but from man older Black voters devoted to her husband.  But as Obama has come on stronger and stronger nationally, the Black vote, which comprises more than half of the state’s Democrats, has been breaking strongly to Obama, a trend that will only escalate if Clinton unleashes the “Anti-Obama” surrogate campaign that is being rumored.  In addition John Edwards, from neighboring North Carolina, always had hopes for the state, particularly from hard hit industrial workers in the fading textile industry and small farmers.  But if these voters believe that Edwards is virtually out of the race by primary, they are much more apt to break to Obama than Clinton.  Before her comeback win in New Hampshire, some of her advisors were urging Clinton to essentially abandon efforts there and concentrate on the big states at play on February 5th.  Buoyed by the win, however, she will make at least a pass at the Palmetto State, but give the edge to Obama there.

As for February 5th, some folks think it will be Armageddon.  But it will likely not be the final battle.  Clinton and Obama both have states which seem comfortably in their columns now, although we now know anything can happen any where.  The big prize, California, once seen as Clinton territory now seems to be up for grabs.  At the end of the day a lot of delegates will have been allotted, but probably not enough to lock the convention vote.  Then things get really interesting.  

BREAKING NEWS

Just as I was getting ready to put this puppy to bed came further evidence of just how quickly things are evolving.  New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is reported to be announcing his withdrawal from the race on Thursday.  Despite a marginally better showing than in Iowa, where he barely managed to survive claiming to be in “the final four,” it was apparent that he would never be able to leap over slipping John Edwards to become the alternative for a party deadlocked between Clinton and Obama.  He did develop a devoted following and made a case for a major roll in any Democratic administration.  Richardson will not likely endorse either of the front runners, but his operatives, volunteers and most of his supporters are likely to find the Obama camp more congenial than the Clinton

It’s been an awfully long time since I touched on Democratic Presidential race.  Now in the afterglow of a stunning victory for my guy, Barack Obama in the Iowa Caucus, I guess it’s time to add my two cents to what will surely be an avalanche of coverage.

The depth of Obama’s victory literally awed the commentators I checked out on the tube.  With 97% of the caucuses reporting when last I heard Obama led with 39% with John Edwards edging out Hillary Clinton for second place 30% to 29%.

Obama’s win was impressive not only for its size, but for its depth.  He won women, Clinton’s supposed ace in the hole, 35% to 30% and out polled Edwards among union members.  He was the overwhelming favorite of voters 17 to 29 and more impressively got this notoriously disaffected voter pool to actually trudge to precinct caucuses and participate in record numbers.

Obama reaped most of the new caucusers who flocked to polls.  This group included many “sunshine Democrats”, independents, and even disillusioned Republicans.  The Clinton camp tried to paint this as a weakness among party loyalists.  But it also showed promise for real strength in the General Election for Democrats frustrated by stinging losses.  Every one knows that Clinton is the boogey woman of Republicans who would positively never vote for her.  She’s not much more popular with the Democratic anti-war left, many of who have sworn to stay home rather than vote for her.  But even among previous Democratic Caucus voters Obama edged out a one point victory over Clinton.  Obama made winning or strong showings in category after category  and in every corner of the state, rural and urban in entrance polls.

The acceptance speech was classic Obama, a reminder of the unparallel skills as a political orator that vaulted him onto the national stage at the Democratic Convention just three and a half years ago.  An MSNBC panel I was watching were unanimously in awe of the performance—even crotchety, crypto-fascist Pat Buchanan.  Chris Mathews was nearly in tears.  Rachel Maddow proclaimed Obama’s win a victory for “…the America I want to live in.”  Of course the press is subject to both herd mentality and stampedes.  And Chris Mathews has been choked up over others. 

But the real story of the night was the enormous victory for the Democratic Party.  212,000 Iowans caucused as Democrats, up 77% from 2004.  Meanwhile participation in a hotly contested Republican straw poll was down dramatically, indicative of both despair among Republicans and an appalling list of Candidates.  This in a state that was reliably red for George W. Bush.   This was not just a contest for a Democratic favorite, it was a repudiation of Bush and Republicanism in general.  This same repudiation is playing out in state after state and promises to remake the nation’s political map.

Clinton, in her remarkably gracious speech made the same point. 

In the end Republicans chose  maverick Mike Huckabee, over a rich Easterner of no firm convictions, anointing as a front runner a candidate who probably can’t win five states in a General Election.

The instant conventional wisdom was the Clinton, once the “inevitable candidate” with deep, deep pockets and a wide lead in most national polls, was dealt a stinging defeat.  With the New Hampshire Primary only five days away she could be vulnerable in another state that appreciates the personal style of politics at which Obama excels  and whose Democratic voters are strongly anti-war.  Down the road in North Carolina Clinton was doing very well among Black voters devoted to her husband and fearful that no Black could actually win the presidency.  But many could swing to Obama after he proves that he can win broad support among white voters.  That could compel Clinton to run, not as the consensus party favorite, but as the “Anti-Obama” in southern and boarder states, a risky, racially charged strategy that could backfire in the North and West.

But it is too early to count anyone as shrewd and organized as Hillary Clinton out.  She remembers—and Bill will remind everyone—that Bill lost both Iowa and New Hampshire before going on to becoming “The Come Back Kid.”  In her speech tonight, she emphasized—and meant—that her campaign was in it for the long haul.  Look for Clintonistas in the media to start the hype about “The Come Back Gal” at the first sign of a turn around

Clinton’s ever nimble staff proved their resiliency when they decked the room with signs and posters with a new twist on her theme that she is “ready to be President.”  Exit polls revealed that the largest block of caucus voters—51% identified “change” as the most important characteristic for a candidate versus only 30 some odd per cent who identified “experience.”  And those change voters went overwhelmingly to Obama.  So the new signage proclaimed “Ready for Change” over Clinton’s name and the old “Ready to Lead” relegated to spot below.

Conventional wisdom is a little more confused by John Edwards.  Edwards has always been the itching powder in the briefs $600 suite punditry—his relentless economic populism makes them nervous.  His inability to compete with the Obama and Clinton fundraising jugernaughts, make it easy to dismiss him as unable to sustain a campaign for the long haul.  Before the votes were in most commentators were predicting a tight race with Edwards finishing third and therefore fatally crippled.  But he actually edged out Clinton.  The experts seemed divided as to whether that was enough to continue.

But a pugnacious Edwards stood his ground in his post caucus speech.  He refused to congratulate the winner or concede defeat.  Elizabeth Edwards, the ailing iron lady of the campaign, introduced her husband by proclaiming in the second place winner in Iowa.  Edwards himself called the whole caucus a “victory for change”—simultaneously a swipe a Clinton and an attempt assume some of Obama’s mantle as an agent of change.  In doing so he was speaking directly to voters around the country, implying that Clinton is irrelevant and the real contest is between him and Obama as the most effective agents of change.  If relations between the Obama and Edwards camps were tense and testy in Iowa, look for them to get downright nasty in the near future if Edwards pursues this track.

The bulk of Edward’s speech was an impassioned plea for justice for the common people.  It was derided as “his standard stump speech,” but no Democrat worth his/her salt could fail to be moved by the call for universal health care and a laundry list social causes at the heart of the progressive populist wing of the party.  What is more, it is refreshing to hear issues of class frankly discussed by a leading Democrat when much of the party leadership seems to have forgotten its New Deal roots.

My guess is that Edwards can’t sustain a campaign much beyond Feburary 5th.  He might do well in Nevada if he can translate his labor union backing to support from the state’s powerful hospitality industry unions.  But those unions might just as well decide to back Obama, who also has labor support, or Clinton if she has managed to restore a bit of shine to her halo.  At any rate, a win in Nevada, while a psychological boost, is not exactly delegate rich.  He had hoped to do well in South Carolina as a near neighbor, but that state is shaping up as a head-to-head for Clinton and Obama.  And Edwards will be hard pressed to seriously contend for some—maybe most—of the Feburary 5th races.  In the end I suspect Edwards will have to swallow hard, withdraw, and release his support.  Most of that support will go, however reluctantly, to Obama as a candidate more apt to pursue a populist agenda than Clinton, who is perceived to be mobbed up with corporate bigwigs.

Lesser candidates who once may have fantasized that some of that support might fall to them and that one of them might emerge from the back of the pack when the front runners pile up ahead of them.  But this isn’t a NASCAR race.  None of the others were able to crack 5% in Iowa.  Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd read the handwriting on the wall and announced their departure from the race almost as soon as the results were announced.  But both have hopes.  Even many Biden loyalists acknowledged that he sometimes seemed to be running for Secretary of State.  Since he never seriously insulted any of the front runners and succeed in elevating his national stature, he might very well get his wish no matter what Democrat wins the next election. And Chris Dodd, who only narrowly lost the post of Majority Leader in the Senate to Harry Ried, stands a good chance to win the job next year with a bolstered majority.

            Dennis Kucinich, always the darling of the kamikaze left, shocked many of his admirers when he released his supporters to Barack Obama as a second choice in Iowa.  Kucinich will probably remain officially in the race to use the forum to promote has agenda, but he has clearly indicated that he feels comfortable with Obama as the viable candidate of progressive Democrats.

That leaves Bill Richardson as the last plausible alternative to the front runners.  Indeed his web site is already hyping him as one of “The Final Four.”  Despite a varied and impressive resume that has won him a loyal cadre of devoted fans, his chances seem dim at best.  But like Biden, Richardson has often seemed to be running for a job in the next administration.  He also covets the Secretary of State job.  But I believe many mornings he wakes up and sees the next Vice President in the mirror.  He seems a better ticket balance for Clinton—strong anti-war credentials, minority (Latino), Western, and a governor—than for Obama, but I am sure there would be a prestigious portfolio for him in any administration.

Any way, it’s on to New Hampshire.  And I am sure the dust won’t have settled on Feburary 5th when Illinois joins other states in Tsunami Tuesday, the closest thing to a national primary.  Obama’s still my man.  I think he’ll take Illinois with numbers reminiscent of his Senate victory, Hillary fans not withstanding.

PATRICK MURFIN listens to a voter in the McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE PENNY POLL.

Despite a strong surge in support for Senator BARACK OBABA in the final day of the McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRAT’S PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY PENNY POLL during the McHENRY COUNTY FAIR, New Mexico Governor BILL RICHARDSON hung on to eke out a close victory at the end of 5 days of voting.

            Voting was brisk all day Sunday. Lively, sometimes passionate, discussions erupted in front of the display of jars representing all eight Democratic presidential candidates. 

Results were based on the total contributions to each candidate and were tallied daily during the fair, as were cumulative results.  Voters could contribute as much as they liked and vote as often as they wished.  One cent equaled one vote.

While the poll was far from scientific, it offered an opportunity to examine the Democratic Presidential field.  “Every one had fun,” Party Chair THOMAS CYNOR reported, “As for drawing any conclusion from the results, I leave that up to others.”

Here are the final cumulative vote totals as of 5:30 Sunday night when voting ended:

Richardson                  15323

Obama                         14061

Clinton                          4957

Edwards                        1417

Biden                            1314

Gravel                             739

Kucinich                         700

Dodd                               559

            A total of $409.70 was collected from all candidate jars.  The proceeds will go to support the work of the McHenry County Democratic Party.

New Mexico Governor BILL RICHARDSON stretched his lead over Senator BARACK OBAMA Saturday in the PENNY POLL being conducted by the county DEMOCRATIC PARTY at the McHENRY COUNTY FAIR. in  WOODSTOCK.  Richardson came in first in the daily tally for the first time since he dominated on opening day of the fair.

            Obama continued to run a strong second in the cumulative vote. Senator HILLARY CLINTON retains significant support but still lags behind the frontrunners.

            Former Senator JOHN EDWARDS doubled Senator JOSEPH BIDEN’S vote on Saturday and regained a distant fourth place, followed by GRAVEL, KUCINICH and DODD, each unable to break out three digit totals on the fourth day of the Fair.

            “The story here is the preference for diversity,” as County Chair THOMAS CYNOR analyzed it.  “Just look at the top three vote getters.  And despite the help from a very generous lady with a large piggy bank, Governor Richardson has had an impressive showing of support. “

            At least one Republican County Board member known to be dissatisfied with the options in the Republican race and staffers for a high level GOP office holder were observed participating in the poll.

            Here are the cumulative totals at Fair closing on Saturday:

The PENNY POLL jars the the McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRATS' booth at the County Fair.

Despite winning the daily tally of cash thrown into jars representing candidates for the DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL nomination on both Thursday and Friday, Senator BARACK OBAMA remains behind New Mexico Governor BILL RICHARDSON in the cumulative vote over the first three days of the PENNY POLL at the McHENRY COUNTY FAIR.

            Richardson surged into an early commanding lead on opening night with the enthusiastic support of a local Democrat, he has managed to continue to hold onto the lead even with strong showing from Obama the next two nights.  Senator HILLARY CLINTON lags behind the leaders but shows substantial support.

            Former Senator JOHN EDWARDS, has shown surprisingly light support and has been overtaken Senator JOE BIDEN for a distant fourth place.  The other three candidates mirror national polls in falling far behind the front runners although former Senator MIKE GRAVEL showed a strong appeal to a 4 year old constituency.

            At the end of Friday evening the cumulative vote totals were:

Richadson                   7556
Obama                         6798
Clinton                        2990
Biden                            870
Edwards                        761
Gravel                           546 + one CHUCKY CHEESE token
Kucinich                        357
Dodd                             196

            The Penny Poll is being conducted by the McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY at its booth in BUILDING C at the McHenry County Fair in WOODSTOCK.  Fair goers will have the opportunity to back their favorite candidates on Saturday and Sunday as well

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES at the recent CNN/YOU TUBE debate. Now you can pick your favorite int the PENNY POLL at the Party booth at the McHENRY COUNTY FAIR.

The McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY will conduct a presidential preference PENNY POLL at their booth at the McHENRY COUNTY FAIR in WOODSTOCK this week.  The public is invited to support their favorite Democratic Presidential contenders by adding a penny—or more—to jars representing each of them.  At the end of the fair the candidate with the most donations will be declared the winner of this highly unscientific poll.

            “With two candidates with Illinois connections and other strong contenders, interest has never been higher in the race for the Democratic nomination,” McHenry County Chair THOMAS CYNOR said.  “The public will get a chance to make their choice count next winter when the Illinois Primary will be held earlier than ever.”

            In addition to Illinois Senator BARACK OBAMA and current front runner Senator HILLARY CLINTON, the candidates include Senator JOSEPH BIDEN, Senator CHRISTOPHER DODD, former Senator JOHN EDWARDS, former Senator MIKE GRAVEL, Representative DENNIS KUCINICH, and Governor BILL RICHARDSON.

            The Democratic booth located in BUILDING C will also have information on local activities, volunteer sign-up sheets, and video presentations.

            The money collected will go to the McHenry County Democratic Party. 

            For more information call the Party at 815 788-9540, e-mail info@mchenrydems.com or visit www.mchenrydems.com.

CAROLYN QUINN

Once again we are proud to present another item of intrepid reporting by the always energetic and enthusiastic CAROLYN QUINN, Secretary of the McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC PARTY. This time she share a rare look at Democratic Presidential candidates at a Chicago forum for the AMERICAN ASOCIATION OF JUSTICE, formerly known as the ASSOCIATION OF TRIAL LAWYERS OF AMERICA.

            My dear friend Jacquee called to say she had been the third caller to a WCPT station and won two tickets to a play in the city.  Cat’s Paw at the Profiles Theater on Broadway near Irving Park – it was supposed to rather progressive and would I like to go?  You bet. 

So we were already planning to have an adventure in the city, and I privately chuckled to myself that I would have fun the next day (that’s now) casually telling somebody (that’s you) who might happen to ask me what I had done over the weekend: “Oh, I saw a play on Broadway -- and how was your weekend?” 

Well, knock me over with a feather, the trip to Chicago yesterday was a grander adventure that I would have ever daydreamed. And I do ever want to tell you about my weekend!  Thank you, Patrick for asking!

Jacquee called in the morning to say she heard that 5 Democratic Presidential hopefuls were going to be at the Hyatt in Chicago that same day. 

Okay, I have to back up and explain that my claim to being a rebel, hence being invited to share on Mr. Murfin’s blog, is that I do not have Cable, Satellite Dish or even an antennae to receive channels 2,5,7, & 9.  I believe that TV has become a giant marketing tool bent on getting me to buy stuff I don’t want or need, and further trying to get me to believe stuff I don’t necessarily want either.  So I think they should pay me to be on the receiving end of a television connection instead of the other way around.  But that’s another story.  Anyway, Jacquee periodically informs me of things from TV land that she knows I would have missed and I inform her of other things that don’t ever make it on TV, so it’s a good trade.

So, my friend told me that she wanted to leave a few hours earlier than planned and try to catch sight of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.  Which other candidates were coming was still a mystery at that point – which only made her want to go more.

I’m thinking that if 5 Presidential Candidates were coming to Chicago I would have been able to locate the event online – or I would have heard in on the radio.  Chicago Public Talk should have been talking about it, I figured – even National Public Radio.  I believed Jacquee, but was filled with reservations.  This was not at all like planning a week in advance to go to Springfield for the Grand Opening of the Obama ‘O8 Campaign. Plus we had play tickets that shouldn’t get wasted, for goodness sakes.  I don’t remember telling her these doubtful musings, but I hesitated, which is not like me a bit, show she probably knew.  Despite knowing full well we didn’t have a chance of success, I decided, “What the heck, nothing’s wrong with a road trip on a beautiful day except using the gas and we were already planning to go to the city anyway.  A detour downtown could be fun even if we just ended up sitting on a Point at the Lake.”  So I started driving East with no reasonable plan in place.  Great conversation with a fellow progressive from McHenry County, though.

From the car, I called Bridget Gray, Chicago Field Director for the Obama O8 campaign.  Bridget was in Iowa promoting our favorite candidate and couldn’t help but wished us luck.  She said there were no tickets being given out to the public.  Hmm.  I called another friend who has an amazing network and usually gives me the scoop on local political activity.  She said you have to be an attorney to attend this particular event. Oh.  Well, I happen to know an attorney with a downtown office and thought he might be attending the event, but no.  He graciously talked us through the downtown traffic and one way streets, though.  Nothing like having a host when you visit a big city. 

Bill Richardson, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton were all at the Hyatt Regency downtown yesterday speaking at a forum for the convention of the American Association for Justice.  This I know because I was there.  But it was sheer audacity to be there; we didn't have a press pass or tickets or anything...  Neither did we have the $2000 it turned out other people paid for two seats at the event.

This was an incredible long shot, but Jacquee and I went inside the Hyatt (no secret service stopped us) and wandered around inside for a little while, finding an alcove with a poster on an easel promoting the fundraiser meet ‘n greet with John Edwards after the forum. A hotel worker came along and told us that the candidates were already speaking in room such and such two floors down, but that the overflow was down the hall watching on a large screen.   

Incredibly, we managed to hear all the candidates except Bill Richardson who had gone first before we got there. I already knew I would pretty much like what each of them would say.  And the Democrats did not disappoint me.  They all get it that the Iraq War is a screwed up mess that we never should have made in the first place.  They all get it that our health care system is a system that protects the pharmaceuticals first and people like me way, way later. And they all get it (as did all the attorney guests) that our American Justice System has been not only threatened, but has become truly endangered.  Every single one of our democratic candidates would have more power and more inclination to protect our constitution than the current administration has in any one of their big toes.  So, I was in the best of company.  The biggest surprise to me was Joe Biden.  His stage presence was riveting, and I just didn’t expect to find him so alluring.  But I did.

The most fabulous part of this adventure was personally meeting each member of the Biden family afterward.  We were in hall outside the reception room and glimpsed Senator Biden through the open double doors.  I asked an employee of the AAJ for advice on how to get an autograph, since he was Right There.  We were told to go ask his wife, who was just inside wearing a blue blazer.  Oh, my.  So we went in and met a delightful prospective first lady, who – get this: apologized to us for being disheveled.  She said she had only just, just got in from Iowa. Dina Biden would be the most gorgeous first lady ever. I didn’t get to hear any of her thoughts or ideas before the Senator approached, moving towards his wife, and I just happened to be standing there. He took both of my hands and asked me my name.  I told him I am Carolyn Quinn and absolutely thrilled to meet him.  He responded with a huge grin and introduced himself to me as Sean Flannigan.  Everybody around chuckled, but like I said before, you could have knocked me over with a feather.  I still cannot get over that he was joking around with me and then sat down for a mini conversation with us.

 So, he autographed a piece of paper I had and did one for Jacquee, and when I asked if he could send a representative to our Central Committee Meeting in McHenry County, he said, "Sure, that's a great idea ~ would you like Beau or Hunter?" He called his sons over and introduced us to them.  Oh, my word: these truly handsome young men, both of them friendly, happy and gracious, said they would truly love to come meet all my democrat friends in McHenry County.  And that's not all.  The Senator also signed a plastic convention hat from the table’s centerpiece for us to put up at our silent auction at our fundraiser Golf Outing come October 5^th in Harvard.

 Joe Biden was fantastic today.  I would say he made Barack look staid, which is saying a lot.  I will try to get a hold of the video tape from the event to share with whoever's interested. I'm just amazed and thrilled.  What a day...  (And we enjoyed the play, too)

--Carolyn Quinn

CONGRESSWOMAN MELISSA BEAN and JUSTICE FRANCIS LORENZ chat.  STATE REPRESENTATIVE JACK FRANKS in the background.

            An enthusiastic crowd filled a Crystal Lake Holiday Inn ballroom on Saturday night for McHENRY COUNTY DEMOCRATATIC PARTY’S second annual THOMAS JEFFERSON DINNER. 

The event featured two moving video presentations by the talented MICHAEL BISSETT.  The first was thematic introduction to the evening featuring a montage of photographs and quotations from folks as diverse as Jefferson himself, Justice THURGOOD MARSHAL, ELANOR ROOSEVELT, GEORGE McGOVERN, and HELEN KELLER.  It reminded us of our traditional Democratic ideals and commitments to the poor, to working people, to peace, justice, and civil liberty. It called on us first to dream, but then to act on that dream.  It was a perfect keynote for an evening that was considerably elevated above the tone of simple crass partisanship one might expect of such an event.  One astonished observer noted, “There are real ideas here.”

Former County Chair PAT OUIMET suggested to me that I post the video on this blog.  I had to explain to him that the steam-powered technology here would melt down with a lengthy video.  But I am so eager to share it that if it is posted on the local party web site or elsewhere, I will post a link here.

Later another Bissett video saluted JUSTICE FRANCIS LORENZ, recipient of the evening’s prestigious THOMAS JEFFERSON LIFE TIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD.  The video featured vintage photo’s of the Lorenz’s long and storied career and charming excerpts from a discussion he had one afternoon with COUNTY CHAIR THOMAS CYNOR. 

Lorenz rose from Depression era poverty as the son of butcher and service during World War II to a law degree and distinguished career of public service.  He was elected as Clerk of the Cook County Circuit Court and Illinois State Treasurer.  Although he lost a bid to become Attorney General, he fondly remembered his service as Illinois Director of Public Works during the years that the Interstate Highway and Chicago Expressway system was being built as his greatest achievement.  He capped his career with long service as an Illinois Appellate Court Judge whose legal opinions are admired and frequently cited to this day.  Although 93 years of age and slowed by arthritis one audience member marveled how he seemed to transform himself into the vigorous and handsome young man in the video photos as he spoke in acceptance of his award.

It has been my pleasure to work closely with MARTI SWANSON, recipient of the BOB McGARRY AWARD FOR COMMUNITY SERVICE (named for the late, beloved McHenry County Party Chair) for many years.  In her acceptance remarks she noted that BOB GIBSON (last year’s award winner) and I were among just a handful of elected Committeemen (that’s what we were called then) listed in the McHENRY COUNTY YEARBOOK for 1995, the year she started her service with the party.  She waited until she retired as a high school English teacher and union officer to take on party work.  Since then not only has she faithfully worked her own precinct and aided others, but offered her skills in many areas to the party.  She worked on an extensive revision of the Party by-laws and worked to keep it up to date—and to make sure that we followed our own rules.  She was active with Illinois Democratic Women and with other regional groups to help build the party.   Marti was a highly effective Party Secretary and my personal choice to be elected chair after my brief tenure filling the end of Bob McGarry’s term.  She lost to JOHN BARTMAN, but did not slacken her dedication to the party.  A John will testify, Marti kept him on the strait and narrow if he over stepped his authority or circumvented party rules.  It may have irked John at the time, but it made him a better, and eventually more effective, chair. 

Marti also served on the RINGWOOD VILLAGE BOARD, at the time one of only a handful of local officials who an open Democrat, and was proud to elected as a Delegate to the DEMOCRATIC PARTY NATIONAL CONVENTION.   She also served as lobbyist for the McHENRY COUNTY RETIRED TEACHERS and for the organization's regional and state bodies.  She knew all the players in SPRINGFIELD and was tireless in her efforts to keep teachers from being screwed out of their pensions.  Yet there was also time for other commitment like the McHENRY COUNTY GENEOLOGICAL SOCIETY and the DEFENDERS WILDFLOWER COMMITTEE. 

Of course it wouldn’t be a political event without speeches from politicians.  STATE REPRESENTATIVE JACK FRANKS, once called the 800 pound gorilla of the local Party, and 8th DISTRICT CONGRESSWOMAN MELISSA BEAN both spoke.  I understand as both worked the room after dinner Jack got an earful on the state budget and Melissa was frequently counseled to vote against continued funding for the IRAQ WAR. 

The biggest splash of the evening, however, came from the man who introduced Bean, ROBERT G. ABBOUD, the mayor of BARRINGTON HILLS and now a candidate for DON MANZULLO’S 16th DISTRICT Congressional seat.  Abboud, a nuclear engineer, businessman, and son of ROBERT A. ABBOUD, legendary former chair of FIRST CHICAGO bank, displayed intelligence and gravitas as he talked at length and in depth on economic issues like the deficit and the de-industrialization of the U.S.  He convinced everyone in the room that he had what it takes to successfully challenge the entrenched, but ineffective incumbent.

Abboud will have to hone his message for the campaign trail, but he can raise the significant sums necessary to mount a meaningful challenge and to hire professional campaign people who can help him.

Long after the dinner ended he was at the center of large knots of enthusiastic listeners—and a few folks ready to give him advise.

The evening’s principle speaker was SHEILA SIMON, daughter of the late SENATOR PAUL SIMON, probably the most beloved Illinois Democrat since ADALI STEVENSON.   Simon is herself active in politics, and has been since childhood helping her father’s campaigns.  She related how her parents—at the time both members of the Illinois House—honeymooned at the Democratic National Convention lf 1960 and how she and her husband honeymooned “in Iowa and 16 other states” during her father’s bid for the Democrat Presidential nomination.  Two years ago she was elected in grass-roots style campaign to the city council of CARBONDALE.  This fall she was narrowly defeated for Mayor of the city.  Yet she has a bright future and will surely emerge again to run for office.

Simon mentioned that she favored SENATOR BARACK OBAMA for president while allowing that any of the Democratic candidates were obviously superior to any of the pathetic Republican hopefuls.

           Melissa Bean and Jack Franks also expressed support for the Senator.  Judging from the reaction of the crowd, I would say that Obama has solid support throughout the Illinois Party--bad news for HILLARY CLINTON, who thought that her PARK RIDGE connections and the loyalty of activist party women would at least bite into his support.  Absolutely no evidence of that at the dinner.  I know some local party folks have also been partial to JOHN EDWARDS, BILL RICHARDSON, or DENNIS KUCINICH, but even many of those folks like Obama just as well or better.

            At the end of the evening the local party was united, a little richer, and eager to tackle next year’s elections.

            Below are more pictures from the evening.  

MARTI SWANSON accepts the BOB McGARRY COMMUNITY SERVICE AWARD.


ROBERT G. ABBOUD makes an impression introducing Bean.


SHEILA SIMON wins over the crowd.


JUSTICE FRANCIS LORENZ draws a chuckle from PARTY CHAIR TOM CYNOR.


ABBOUD chats with local Democrats after dinner.


Three great Democrats:  last year’s McGarry Award Winner BOB GIBSON, former county chair PATRICK OUIMET, and current chair TOM CYNOR.


FUNDRAISING COMMITTEE CHAIR PAULA YENSEN, the impresario of the evening and her  husband MICHAEL BISSET (standing clapping,) who produced the videos that wowed the crowd.

All week the in-box of my e-mail has been stuffed with screaming outrage.  Thurdsay the Democratic led congress handed Resident GEORGE W.  BUSH  the fabulous gift of almost complete surrender on funding the WAR IN IRAQ.   After a “compromise” deal was worked out with the White House the measure cleared both houses on Thursday.  MAJORITY LEADER HARRY REID voted for the measure.  In an act of slight of hand SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI voted against it while letting her leadership team advance the bill.  The lip-stick-on-the-pig, meant to mollify a public demanding an end to the war, is that for the first time Bush will have to accept “benchmarks” for progress from the Iraqi government in getting control of the country.  Make that optional earmarks.  Shrub can wave them if he sees fit.

            As part of the deal, the Democrats got to bundle some spending initiatives unrelated to the bill—most of them worthwhile.  And they finally got the long treasured MINIMUM WAGE increase, albeit with tax-cut bribes for business.  Great. Just great.  By tying those measures to the bill they invite the Republicans to mock them and unprincipled pork-barrel traders and the corrupt recipients of public bribes.  It will make no difference that the corrupters and bribers are the Maladministration and the GOP (stands for Got Ours, Patsy) Congressional minorities.

            With in moments of the announcement of the “deal” by Democratic leaders earlier in the week, jubilant Republicans were claiming a total Democratic capitulation to the President’s insistence on “no surrender dates.”  They also knew that the Democrats were now full partners in the war.  By playing Tweedle Dee to Tweedle Dum Democrats were neutralizing the war as an election issue.

            There can be no question that this is both a policy and a political disaster for Congressional Democrats.  No one now believes them when they claim that they will stand fast when they tackle the subject again when the regular Defense Department funding bill comes up for consideration in July.

            So what will the vote achieve?  Can any silk purse be knit from this sows ear?  One good thing is that the vast network of anti-war organizations, websites, blogs and publications have become instantly re-unified.  Just months ago stand-fasters like DEMOCRATS.COM, CODE PINK,  and others were at the throats of  “pragmatists” at MOVEON and moderates like the COUNCIL FOR A LIVABLE WORLD when the latter went along with Nancy Pelosi’s incremental approach to a funding bill.  This week there wasn’t a dimes worth of difference in the outrage all expressed or in the intensity in mobilizing their supporters to swamp Congress with protest.

            Dozens of  Democratic incumbent Congress people and Senators who have signed on to the capitulation will now be the targets of well financed and organized primary challengers as the grass roots rises up to seize the party and not only make it a true peace party, but drive it significantly to the left.  Things look bleak indeed for “triangulators” and DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP COUNCIL types.

            This also will have a major impact on the Presidential race.  Marginal dark horses who have been consistently and vocally anti-war may be the beneficiaries of those now taking pledges never to vote for anyone who approves of this measure.  Score points for DENNIS KUCINICH, MIKE GRAVEL,  and CHRISTOPHER DODD.  If one of them could establish himself as a clear alternative he could suddenly find himself both funded and a real player in some of the primary states.

            Established anti-war candidates BARACK OBAMA and JOHN EDWARDS will do alright as well.  Edwards came out strongly against the temporary funding measure a few days ago in a policy speech to the COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS, where he outlined a detailed proposal for ending the war.  Out now hardliners might not, however like the details of his plan which calls for removing the bulk of U.S. troops by the end of the year but maintaining a strong presence in Kuwait and the Gulf and even a sizable garrison in Baghdad to “protect the embassy.”  Like it or not this is version of JOHN MURTHA’S earlier proposal of maintaining a regional presence “over the horizon.”  Obama, who got to cast a vote against the measure in the Senate, has been less detailed but tends in the same direction.   And in point of fact this is how America will get out of the war, no matter how unsatisfactory to the bring-‘em-all-home-now crowd. 

            HILLARY CLINTON also voted against the funding.  Will that be enough to placate the rabidly anti-Hillary peace left?  Or will she be seen as bending to the whims of polls and thus sully the image as a “strong” leader she has carefully built.  The right already hates her.  They will take special delight in smearing her now as a “flip-lopper” and a “surrender monkey.”  She calculates that the public’s absolute rejection of the war and its sycophantic boosters that she can weather that storm.  A new CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES presidential preference poll showed her picking up seven points over the past two weeks and now enjoying a wide lead over Obama.  Maybe the move can actually woo the anti-war public as opposed to the anti-war movement, which will never embrace her.

JOHN KERRY who, despite dropping out of the race following an embarrassing case of foot-in-the-mouth disease, has scrupulously maintained his campaign e-mail list and today made a point of touting his vote against the bill.  He may still harbor fantasies of the Party turning to him after the main contenders cannibalize each other.  Fat chance.

By coincidence  AL GORE launched his new book ASSAULT ON REASON, stinging rebuke to the post “reality based” trips of the Bush administration, this week.  That gave him the opportunity to pummel “failed leadership” not just in the White House, but in Congress and the Courts as well. He was everywhere from the Sunday morning talking head shows to DAVID LETTERMAN.  And while maintaining constantly (and most of his friends believe it) that he does not intend to run for President, he has lately made a point of saying “never say never.”  A hugely laudatory profile in the NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE by JAMES TRAUB has been circulated throughout the net by several blogs and websites and hints that Gore might be mulling a “late entry” into the race if the front runner falter and there is a “grassroots” demand.  A number of high powered political pros have refrained from signing on with other campaigns and are setting up an un-official shadow operation.  Gore growing iconic status and the yearning of many Democrats may overwhelm his desire not to run.  Were he to announce there would be a stampede of supporters deserting other campaigns for Gore.  It might not be enough to put the former vice-president over the top, but it could sink campaigns with shallow support—Hillary being the most vulnerable.

What ever happens, the anti-war movement will be tempted to jettison its attachment to the Democratic Party—a move longed for by the left militants of such demonstrations machines as THE WORLD CAN’T WAIT.  We could see an up-turn in street demonstrations, direct action, and civil disobedience and the development of a movement reminiscent of the Vietnam War resistance.  That could drain maybe tens of thousands of dedicated, motivated boots-on-the-ground troops that Democrats were counting on next year not only for the Presidential campaign, but to build solid majorities in both houses of  Congress.

            To end the war and to build a Democratic Party strong enough to advance a positive progressive agenda, Congressional Democrats must find a way to say no to the least popular President in history.  And they have to find that way fast.

            Now is the moment to raise Hell, or Hell will surely find us.

On Tuesday, April 10th MOVEON.ORG will offer an extraordinary opportunity to hear first hand from the top Democratic candidates for president their views on the WAR IN IRAQ.  The leading organization for integrating local activists into a national movement via the web is sponsoring house parties across the country.  Participants (in alphabetic order for fairness) will be SENATOR JOSEPH BIDEN, SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON, JOHN EDWARDS, REPRESENTATIVE DENNIS KUCINICH, SENATOR BARAK OBAMA, and GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON.

MoveOn members, gathering in living rooms from coast to coast will ask candidates the tough questions about their Iraq plans and will hear the answers directly. There will be time for group discussion at each meeting and on line across the country. The next day, all MoveOn members will vote on who we think will do the best job in Iraq.

Unfortunately, I have to work that night (Rats!) But most of you have a chance to attend.  The parties are scheduled to start at 6:30 Central Time, but I imagine that it will be 7 before the candidates log in.  The discussion is bound to be lively—and pointed.  This is you chance to separate the sheep from the goats.

To find a house party near you, or to host one (it’s not too late) follow this link:  http://pol.moveon.org/event/events/index.html?action_id=80